US News : Things are still unpredictable. The reason for saying so is the 2016 election result. Opinion polls suggest Trump will not win. The results were the opposite. But the political newcomer Donald Trump succeeded in overthrowing everything and astonishing the world.
If so, what will happen in 2020 ?
Now Trump is behind. In front of Biden. Will this working class stand with Trump in last-minute twists and turns? Has the police action in Wisconsin and the government’s response alienated blacks? Black people make up the majority of those who come to vote earlier. Will this help Biden? Not to mention. The 2016 results proved the calculations wrong. Trump has been backed by a rest belt that includes parts of Central and West America and Northeast America.
The US presidential election is just days away. This time it is a tougher fight than in 2016. According to reports, the wind is not blowing for President Trump this time. Opponent Joe Biden leads the polls. Things are favorable for Biden in states, including Swing State, which is considered crucial.
But things are still unpredictable. The reason for saying so is the 2016 election result. Opinion polls suggest Trump will not win. The results were the opposite. But the political newcomer Donald Trump succeeded in overthrowing everything and astonishing the world. For the first time, protests against the president took place within hours of the results being announced.
What helped Donald Trump then ?
The result was a combination of a number of things that had emerged over a period of time. All that was revealed in the election. Something similar happened before, Brexit. No one thought that Britain would decide to leave the European Union. But left.
With that, some began to think that there might be some changes in the American election as well. The right-wing movement throughout Europe added to the depth and breadth of these thoughts. Thus the usual calculations in the United States also went wrong. Something happened beyond that. Reality show star Donald Trump becomes US president. Perhaps a victory not even Trump or his campaign team expected. Trump won the popular vote even for Hillary. That is the uniqueness of the American electoral system. Yet this victory came as a shock to the nations of the world, especially Europe.
There are a handful of reasons to say no. During his campaign, Trump proved that diplomacy and tactical maneuvers were beyond his control.
It is the policy of the day to say anything to those who do not like it and do not stand by his word. That day proved that racism is the hallmark of someone who is good at insulting anyone. Insulting blacks, Hispanics, women, and leaders within his own party — McCain, for example, spoke extremely badly about women and did not release tax figures. Threatened to jail the opponent. After all, the Republican Party wrote off Trump. The defeat of the party was confirmed.
But then, to everyone’s surprise, Trump won. And with that in mind, including swing states like Florida and Ohio.
The rest of the belt belt has supported Trump. Trump swept the three states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from the Blue Sword, which sided with Democrats from 1992 to 2012. Then Iowa and Ohio. In Minnesota, Hillary Clinton won, but the majority was very small.
There are many factors that favor Trump. One is the reverse flow of working class whites. This faction has been with the Democratic Party from time to time. They had recently distanced themselves from the Democratic Party, which did not know their needs and was far from them economically or culturally. The financial crisis made matters worse, and the stimulus packages provided by the government only benefited the rich. As a result, they withdrew from the Democratic Party. They believed Trump’s rhetoric against the system, so all states that voted for Obama, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan, were drawn to the Trump phenomenon.
Another factor is the level of education, which is high for Hillary and low for Trump, and many states have gone that route. Blacks were another factor in Hillary’s defeat. In 2016, the number of black people who went to the polls was low. They had no interest in Obama or Hillary.
Another is that a section of voters did not show much interest in either candidate. A majority of those who went to the polls decided that Trump was better than Hillary. Trump’s words that he would clean up the swamp were more influential than Hillary, who is part of the system. That’s why Bernie Sanders, a leftist, later suggested that he would have won if he had been the Democratic nominee.
Trump received 306 electoral votes. Hillary 232. In Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida, Trump won by 1.2 percent of the vote. If Hillary Clinton had won all four states, she would have been president.
Hillary won the popular vote. 20,86,000 more votes than Trump. Voting Percentage 48.1. Trump 46. Obama’s victory was 3.9 percent.
This is the fifth time a popular vote loser has lost. This phenomenon occurred in 1824, 1876, 1888, and 2000.
If so, what will happen in 2020 ? Now Trump is behind. In front of Biden. Will this working class stand with Trump in last-minute twists and turns? Has the police action in Wisconsin and the government’s response alienated blacks ?
Black people make up the majority of those who come to vote earlier. Will this help Biden? Not to mention. The 2016 results proved the calculations wrong. Trump has been backed by a rest belt that includes parts of Central and West America and Northeast America.
The name ‘Rust Belt’, which means ‘rusting’, came from the rusting of the iron and steel industry due to the economic downturn. The rest of the belt includes Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Illinois and Indiana. Some of these are swing states. Therefore, it is crucial.
This time too, the rest belt and the sun belt will be crucial. The southern region is the Sun Belt. People flocked here after World War II. The weather is pleasant and there is plenty of sunlight. Anyway the sun belt is warm in population and economy.
There are some belts, black belt and cotton belt, both of which are associated with slavery. Then, wheat growing area is wheat belt and maize growing area is corn belt. But two of the choices are important, rust and sun belts. Recognizing that, Trump and Biden are fighting.
Obama’s success in 2008 and 2012 was confirmed by states including the rest of the belt. But in 2016, all states except Minnesota supported Trump. Trump won 442 of 496 counties. The quality of education mentioned earlier is crucial here.
Most of the voters here do not have a college education. 60 percent in Iowa and 55 percent in Wisconsin. In Michigan51.
In Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona, on the other hand, in the Sun Belt, this category is only two-fifths and one-third.
But now the study says the population ratio in the rest belt is changing. The number of white voters without a college education is declining. At the same time, non-white voters have increased. They are leaning towards the Democratic Party. College-educated whites have long been Democrats. All of this is expected to help Biden. Biden focuses on the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In opinion polls, they are with Biden. The swing states are similar to Ohio and Iowa. Here, Biden is backed by college-educated and non-college-educated whites and African Americans.